#ExtraordinaryWeather #BermudaPeachy #Erin expected to blast #Bermuda with wind and rain, dangerous beach conditions likely across U.S. East Coast next week
> 2-4 inches of rainfall and 60- to 80-mph wind gusts are expected in Bermuda next week as Erin passes by the islands
> AccuWeather estimates a 70% probability that Erin will not directly impact the U.S. East Coast at this time
> Rough surf and dangerous rip currents will likely impact beaches from Puerto Rico and the northern Caribbean this weekend to much of the U.S. East Coast next week
Tropical Storm Erin is now forecast to bring torrential rainfall and gusty winds to Bermuda and dangerous rough surf to the East Coast of the United States next week, after soaking parts of the Caribbean and Puerto Rico this weekend.
“Based on current conditions, forecast atmospheric patterns for the next week, and historical hurricane tracks for this time of year, AccuWeather estimates a 70 percent probability that Erin will not directly impact the U.S. East Coast at this time,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Families heading to Atlantic beaches this weekend and next week for a late-summer vacation need to be careful. Rip currents can be deadly. More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year.”
Impacts expected in the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to continue to strengthen and eventually become a hurricane while crossing the Atlantic later this week.
Environmental conditions northeast of the Lesser Antilles will be very favorable for intensification and potentially rapid intensification. AccuWeather forecasts Erin to strengthen to a major hurricane this weekend.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 hurricane or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. A Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale has sustained winds between 111-129 mph.
Locally heavy rain will fall from the northern Leeward Islands of Antigua and Barbuda through Puerto Rico this weekend. General rain amounts will total 1-2 inches, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 7 inches. This could lead to flooding in low-lying areas.
Erin can bring wind gusts of 40-60 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph, to northern Puerto Rico through Saint Martin later this week. Gusty winds could trigger power outages in parts of Puerto Rico.
Due to rain and wind, Erin is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean.
A less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes warns of limited damage from wind and rain, as well as coastal inundation resulting in some property damage.
Erin will bring rough surf and dangerous rip currents to northern and eastern beaches across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas starting Friday through the weekend.
Hazardous beach conditions along the U.S. East Coast
AccuWeather hurricane experts say the timing and strength of a dip in the jet stream, along with the strength and position of the Bermuda high, will help determine how close Erin will get to the U.S. At this point, an offshore track is the most likely.
There will be an increase in rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the East Coast of the U.S. next week.
Hazardous beach conditions are expected along the Atlantic coast of Florida starting Monday. The risk will expand across the entire East Coast from the Southeast to New England and Atlantic Canada through next week.
“Despite being hundreds of miles offshore, Erin will likely bring dangerous rough surf, deadly rip currents, and possible erosion issues to beaches along the East Coast,” DaSilva warned. “The Outer Banks and Atlantic Canada could see some of the roughest beach conditions next week.”
Impacts expected in Bermuda
AccuWeather hurricane experts forecast Erin to pass near Bermuda next week. Depending on Erin’s track, Bermuda could experience significant rain and wind impacts from the hurricane.
“People in Bermuda need to closely monitor forecast updates and make sure they are prepared for tropical impacts,” DaSilva said. “Bermuda could be soaked with 2 to 4 inches of rain and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph when Erin passes by the island next week.”
General rain amounts of 2-4 inches are expected at this time, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches.
Wind gusts of 60-80 mph may impact parts of Bermuda next week, with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph. These winds can bring some tree and power line damage, as well as localized power outages.
Across Bermuda, dangerous seas and rip currents are anticipated as well.
Tropics heating up
AccuWeather hurricane experts predicted last week that three to five named storms would develop in the Atlantic basin in August.
Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday, just days after Tropical Storm Dexter moved out into the open Atlantic.
“There are four low-risk areas for tropical development potential across the Atlantic basin right now,” DaSilva said. “With one area of concern in the Bay of Campeche, a second off the coast of Atlantic Canada, two other areas in the main development region of the Atlantic and Tropical Storm Erin approaching the Bahamas, AccuWeather has expanded a low risk for tropical rain and wind impacts across the entire U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coastline, from South Texas to New England. There is a medium risk of tropical rain and wind impacts starting next Tuesday for parts of coastal North Carolina and Virginia, as well as Atlantic Canada later next week.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is a high risk of tropical rain and wind impacts across Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands from Aug. 15-19 as Erin passes near the area.
There is a medium risk of tropical rain and wind impacts across coastal North Carolina Aug. 19-21 as Erin passes near the area. A medium risk of tropical rain and wind impacts is also forecast across eastern Nova Scotia from Aug. 20-24 as Erin passes near the area.
There is also a high risk of tropical rain and wind impacts across Bermuda Aug. 19-20.
AccuWeather hurricane experts say multiple tropical waves emerging off Africa over the next two weeks will need to be watched closely for development. These tropical waves can bring impacts to portions of the Caribbean and possibly the East Coast of the U.S. later this month.
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